Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Japan downgraded

Standard and Poors, like Moody's is still of the opinion that the gold standard still applies to currencies, taxation policy, and sovereign debt. I disagree.

SINGAPORE (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 26, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services today revised to negative from stable its outlook on the 'AA'
long-term rating on Japan. At the same time, we affirmed our 'AA' long-term
and 'A-1+' short-term local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on
Japan.

The outlook change reflects our view that the Japanese government's
diminishing economic policy flexibility may lead to a downgrade unless
measures can be taken to stem fiscal and deflationary pressures. At a
forecasted 100% of GDP at fiscal yearend March 31, 2010, Japan's net general
government debt burden is among the highest for rated sovereigns. Moreover,
the policies of the new Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government point to a
slower pace of fiscal consolidation than we had previously expected. Combined
with other social policies that are not likely to raise medium-term trend
growth and with persistent deflationary pressures, we forecast that Japan's
net general government debt to GDP will peak at 115% of GDP over the next
several years.

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