Demand in Emerging Markets...

...for oil based on the premise that import demand among the G20 will remain healthy.

Speaking at International Petroleum Week in London, Christof Ruehl, chief economist at BP, predicted a long-term recovery in global oil demand next year, fuelled by the industrialisation of China and India.

Ruehl also predicted that the oil price will remain flat in the short term and the oil market will see a synchronisation with the economic recovery in the medium term.

According to Ruehl, demand will switch from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries to the non-OECD countries over the next year. "The industrialisation of these emerging countries, such as China and India, will incentivise long-term demand growth," he said.

He also outlined how he expected to see a raft of consolidation in the oil refinery sector, with older refineries being phased out and newer, modern facilities protected. "The golden age of refineries only lasted a few years and is now coming to an end. With spare capacity having grown, demand has taken a sharp turn to the negative," he added.